2017 Fantasy Football: Houston Texans Outlook
Over three seasons with Bill O'Brien as the head coach, the Texans have gone 9-7 every year with the last two seasons resulting in playoff berths. Their success was a result of being the top defense in the league as far as yards allowed, which was an improvement of two spots over 2015 even with top defender J.J. Watt missing the last 13 games of the season. Houston did fade to 11th in the league points allowed (328 - 7th in 2014 and 2015). QB play has been a huge issue in three of the last four seasons for the Texans. They fell to 28th in points scored (279) and 29th in yards allowed with Brock Osweiler behind center. It was the fourth straight year of regression in offense yards and third in points scored (2014 - 372 and 2015 - 339). The offensive coordinator took the ax last season. O'Brien decided he was the best man to make the offensive calls in 2017 so Houston didn't bring in a new offensive coordinator. Mike Vrabel was promoted from linebackers coach to defensive coordinator. As a player, he helped the Patriots win three Super Bowls. The key for a deeper playoff push would be more competitive play at the quarterback position.
The only player added to the offensive side of the ball was backup T Breno Giacomini who struggled with the Jets in 2016. Houston lost CB A.J. Bouye to the Jaguars after he played at a high level in pass coverage last year. DE John Simon moved on to the Cardinals after adding rotational value before suffering a chest injury. G Oday Aboushi signed with the Seahawks. He only started four games in 2016 while providing negative value. The biggest move in the offseason was dumping QB Brock Osweiler to the Browns. They admitted their mistake, which clears a path for a new beginning at the quarterback position.
With the 12th pick in the third round, Houston addressed their weakness at the quarterback position by selecting Deshaun Watson. He led Clemson to back-to-back championship games with the second opportunity leading to a National Championship. He played most of his career out of the shotgun. His legs are a huge asset with a winnable arm, but Watson needs to improve his decision-making with tighter coverage expected in the NFL plus improve his accuracy. His first look had a much higher rate of being open in college, so reading defenses will be his biggest area of need headed into his rookie season.
LB Zach Cunningham was added in the second round. Instincts add a step to a football player's play speed. Cunningham has vision with enough speed to be a disrupter in the run game and attacking the QB, but he does need a clean run. He'll handle himself well on three downs. His biggest weakness is his strength that hurts him when trying to break free from blocks against linemen. Another playmaker on this defense just adds more upside to this defense.
There will be more competition for playing time at the RB position in 2017 with the selection of RB D'Onta Foreman in the third round. Gifted with a nice combination of size (6'0" and 233 Lbs.), speed, and power, Foreman will be an interesting player to follow this summer. He has some sleekness to his running style while carrying the hammer when needed to blast through defenders. He'll upgrade the short yardage, and goal line runs. His vision isn't elite, and he needs to improve his patience. His attacking style does lead to minimal losing plays. Tough to believe he'll have value on third downs until he cleans up his pass blocking technique and his blitz recognition. Ball security could be an issue.
In the fourth round, the Texans drafted T Julie'n Davenport. Small school prospect with the skill set to develop into a capable pass blocker with some pulling ability. His technique needs to improve in run blocking but he plays with power and length.
Houston took a swing with DT Carlos Watkins with their second pick in the fourth round. He'll bring more disruption to the point of attack with power and athleticism. His motor had a short tank, which points to him being a rotational player as a run defender. Possible situational rusher if he's used properly and Watkins has a winnable matchup.
CB Treston Decoud is a physical defender who works best in press coverage if he doesn't get beat off the line. If he does, Decoud lacks the speed and quickness to recover from his mistakes. He's slow footed changing direction in his backpedal while grading well in run support and making tackles. His skill set paints him as a safety at the next level with limitation in coverage.
In the final round, the Texans selected C Kyle Fuller. A power player with limited range. Projects as one punch blocker working on a small piece of the field. Kyle needs the rusher to come to him to increase his success level.
The Texans finished eighth in the NFL in rushing yards (1,859) thanks to sixth-most rushing attempts (456) in the league. They did struggle to punch it in at the goal line (eight rushing TDs). They had ten runs over 20 yards and 49 runs of 10 yards or longer. Houston ended up with 35 negative runs.
Houston ranked 29th in passing yards (3,176) while gaining a league low 5.9 yards per passing attempt. They threw 15 TDs with 16 Ints and 32 sacks. AS bad as it looks, the Texans was still about league average in passing attempts (36.4 per game).
LT Duane Brown allowed minimal damage in pass protection and is an elite run blocker. This will be his 10th year in the league after being drafted in the first round in 2008.
LG Xavier Su'a-Filo had a tough time in his third season in the league after the Texans drafted him in the second round in 2014. He continues to struggle in pass protection.
C Nick Martin is an attacking power player who plays well in the run game. He needs to find a balance between the attack mode and holding his ground against oncoming pass rushers. His tendency to be first off the ball can lead to some off-balance issues when leaning forward to block in the passing game. He missed his rookie season with an ankle injury after Houston selected him in the second round. Greg Mancz did an excellent job as his replacement especially in pass blocking, so Martin may need to fight for a starting job.
RG Jeff Allen had a tough 2016 leading to losing value in all areas. He signed a four-year $28 million contract in March of 2016. Allen was expected to upgrade the rushing with neutral value as a run blocker.
RT Chris Clark added to the struggles with the right side of the line with a poor 2016 season. He played through a shoulder injury that required surgery in January. Clark has experience in the NFL at left tackle so he should be able to hold his own this season.
Overall, this line has plenty of risk with possible upside from a couple of positions. Their only edge comes at left tackle. I rate the group as below the league average.
The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing TDs touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing TDs (TDS).
This information is based on 2016, which will work as our starting point for 2017. We'll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We'll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.
2016 LG Average = the league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2016.
2016 Results = this is the results for each team in the NFL last year.
2016 Adjustment is based on the 2016 league average and the 2016 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat and the basis for strength of schedule.
Houston has two strong matchups in the run game against the 49ers and the Browns and three mid-tier games against the Chiefs and two games vs. the Colts. They have seven contests vs. teams with strength against the run.
Their passing offense has four games within the division that offer upside, two against Indianapolis and two against Tennessee. The rest of their passing schedule has seven games with risk. Arizona and two games against Jacksonville will provide the toughest tests.
The Texans tend to run a lot of plays on offense, which gives some of the players in this system higher upside with improved play at quarterback. They ran the ball 43.9 percent of the time. With one of the better defenses in the league, Houston will play in many tight contests leading to upside in the run game. They need to block better in the red zone to produce more TDs.
The Texans run defense will get in their two games vs. the Titans. The 49ers had success running the ball in 2016, but part of that success came from the QB. Most of the rest of Houston's schedule looks neutral with the Ravens and Rams looking like the weak links.
They play two terrible passing offenses in San Francisco and the Rams with Cleveland and the Titans (twice) grading well below the league average throwing the ball. Houston will be tested by the Patriots, the Seahawks, the Colts twice, the Steelers, and the Cardinals.
Houston finished 12th in rushing yards allowed (1,595) and allowed 13 rushing TDs. Ball carriers gained 4.0 yards per rush with eight runs over 20 yards.
The strength of this defense came defending the pass (3,226 yards - 2nd). They allowed only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. QBs tossed 20 TDs with 11 Ints and 31 sacks.
After recording 38 sacks with 154 combined tackles over the previous two seasons, DE J.J. Watt missed 13 games due to a back injury that required surgery. He's expected to be ready for training camp. Watt is one of the best defensive players in the league with impact value rushing the QB. DT D.J. Reader and DT Carlos Watkins will battle for the nose tackle job in 2017. Reader looks like a massive run clogger with limitations due to his questionable motor. Watkins is more athletic with upside in disruption. He lacks endurance as well leading to a part-time role. DE Jadeveon Clowney improved in his third year in the league while still falling short of his expected value after Houston selected him first overall in 2014. He finished with a career-high in tackles (52) and sacks (6) while playing in 14 games. He battled a left knee injury last year that required surgery in January.
LB Whitney Mercilus has been the Texans' second best player on defense over the last two seasons. After delivering 12 sacks in 2015, that number slipped to 7.5 in 2016 with growth in his tackles for the fourth straight year. He's a former first round pick (2012) and plays well against the run. LB Benardrick McKinney led Houston in tackles (129) while chipping in with five sacks. LB Brian Cushing isn't the same player he once was, and his future replacement (Zach Cunningham) was drafted in the second round in 2017. Zach should fit in well with this crew as he'll bring speed and vision.
CB Kareem Jackson will compete with CB Kevin Johnson for one starting jobs at corner. Johnson is the better player, but he missed ten games last year due to a foot injury. CB Johnathan Joseph had a drop-off in his game in 2016 at age 32. He may end up being a rotational defender in 2017. S Andre Hal and S Corey Moore look to be neutral players at their position.
This defense will have risk vs. the pass in games against top offenses when the defensive line doesn't pressure the QB. They have talent at linebacker and on the outside of the defensive line. The Texans need someone to step up at defensive tackle. Fantasy owners will draft them as a top defense in 2017. I like the sacks, but the secondary may not get enough picks to deliver an edge. I won't overpay for them.
QB Deshaun Watson, HOU - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
Update 10/16/17The Texans have seen a magical ride offensively over the last three games. During this period, Watson has 941 combined yards with 12 TDs while averaging 8.6 yards per pass attempt. His success pushed him to third in QB scoring in 2017 with another primo matchup in Week 6. The Browns allow 7.9 yards per pass attempt in 2017 with QBs tossing 11 TDs. They've only played one team (PIT) with upside in the passing game. In their last four games, Cleveland faced BAL, IND, CIN, and NYJ. Fantasy owners will be drawn to this matchup plus the Texans' defense does have more failure risk due to the loss of J.J. Watts. Improving offense that will needs to outscore their opponents going forward. Plenty of fire power at WR to deliver another winning score while the run game may steal his upside.
QB Tom Savage, NO - Dynasty Only
Update 12/09/17Savage had his best game of the season passing the ball in Week 13. He passed for 365 yards with a TD. Over five starts, Tom only has five passing TDs while gaining only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The 49ers are 27th in the NFL against QBs with four teams scoring over 25 Fantasy points (LAR - 292/4, WAS - 330/3, DAL - 275 combined yards with three TDs, and SEA - 253 combined yards with three TDs). San Fran allows 7.5 yards per pass attempt with 21 passing TDs. Sneaky play when you consider DeAndre Hopkins is the top priced WR on the week. Hopkins can't come in without Savage having a decent game.
RB Lamar Miller, HOU - Bust (overvalued)
Update 12/09/17Miller has 75 rushing yards or fewer in all 12 games. He gained less than 3.8 yards per rush in each of his last three games with reasonable value in the run game (31/309/3). On the year, Lamar averages 18.75 touches per game with six TDs. The 49ers are 30th vs. RBs (2,010 combined yards with ten TDs and 72 catches). San Fran did play better stopping the bleeding in rushing TDs (1) over the last four games. The early signs points to an upside matchup and Tom Savage did look better last week (365 yards). His new problem for playing time comes from Andre Ellington who was on the field for 47 of 81 plays compared to 65 by Miller.
RB D'Onta Foreman, HOU - Fantasy Handcuff
Update 10/16/17Foreman is listed questionable for this week's game with a hip issue. After having 35 touches for 175 yards and two catches over three straight games, D’Onta only had five touches last week while being on the field for nine of 64 plays. I expect him to play with a very good chance of scoring his first NFL TD, but his playing time could have a wide range of outcomes.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU - Stud (low risk)
Update 12/29/17Headed into the 2018 football season, Hopkins will be one of two WRs to score over 300 Fantasy points in PPR leagues despite playing half the season with a weak QB. Last week DeAndre only had six targets (second lowest total of the year), yet he scored a TD for the third straight game. On the year, he scored 13 TDs. Hopkins needs 156 passing yards to pass Antonio Brown for the league high. He averages 11.6 targets per game with a nice game (6/86/1) against the Colts earlier in the year. Indy sits 24th in the NFL defending WRs (172/2533/13 on 293 targets). DeAndre has a huge edge over all of the Colts' CBs. Unfortunately, his success is tied to the passing ability of T.J. Yates. I like the idea of his target number to beat Brown and he should be featured heavily in the passing game. Update: Hopkins may not play this week due to a calf and toe injuries.
WR Will Fuller, HOU - Not Draft Worthy
Update 12/29/17Over the last three games, Fuller has nine catches for 80 yards on 15 targets. He hasn't scored a TD since Week 8 when Deshaun Watson was still upright. With DeAndre Hopkins trending toward not playing in Week 17, Will will be the WR1 for the Texans. Indy allows the most receiving plays over 20 yards (63), which gives Fuller a chance to pay off at this level if Houston can get better QB play. I expect him to be a popular play this week, but he'll see much more double coverage without Hopkins in the starting lineup.