Week 7: Sit 'Em
Sit'em articles can vary widely across fantasy websites. Some weeks you might see consistency among experts and other weeks you might not find one match between articles. Sit'em picks are focused on selecting usually solid players that are not worth starting in any given week. Circumstances might include match-up, injury watch, RBBC approach, passing vs. rushing focus, past performance, etc.
Sit'ems include some tough calls. We all have doubts each week and have to consider our options. It is a difficult decision to sit your stud or solid player, but occaisonally you must in order to win that match-up.
With Ryan, Manning and Rivers on bye this week, Ponder might look like a good option. He had two solid outings in Week 5 and 6 for decent fantasy numbers, but I think you should look elsewhere for your bye week QB. This week Ponder faces an Arizona defense that has been solid this season and only looks to be getting better with time. This defense is ranked 18th against the pass, but I think they can shut down an opponent significantly. With Kevin Kolb possibly out and the Arizona offense hurting, their defensive unit is going to have to play twice as hard to keep their team in games. I am thinking that Ponder is going to see Arizona's pass rush in force this week and this will create situations for inaccurate passing and turnovers. I project about 200 yards passing, 1 TD, 2 interceptions and some short rushing yardage.
Chicago and Bush are coming off the bye week, but his production has been down significantly since the return of a healthy Matt Forte. Forte is the dominant back in this running game. Detroit has allowed an average of 103 rushing yards per game to opposing backs, but in this scenario, Matt Forte looks to be the big winner this week. The two previous weeks before the bye were not all that productive for Bush and I see that trend continuing. Bush can be an interesting flex start if you consider his third down and goal line carries, but i Detroit's over than 100 average rushing yards allowed per game, they only allow an average of 0.25 rushing touchdowns. This tells me that, Bush is not likely to find the end zone in Week 7. Bush's weekly fantasy point average has been about 9 points this season. In Week 7 we can expect to see this number fall about 36% to about 5.5 points. If you are willing to take a big risk then start Bush this week;if not, expect to see less than 25 rushing yards and maybe a short yardage reception. Forte will receive the workload and the fantasy numbers.
In Week 6 we saw Gore and the San Fracisco running game take a backseat to offensive coordinator Greg Roman's pass oriented attack vs. New York. Gore only carried the ball eight times. He did grab four passes, but they were for short yardage. This week we will likely see the San Francisco offense shift gears and return their focus to a split running and passing scheme, but the match-up vs. Seattle will be difficult. Seattle's defense has only allowed an average of 67 rushing yards per game so far this season. They are also stingy in terms of their allowance of rushing touchdowns. For these reasons, Gore makes the sit'em list this week. It is projected that Gore's fantasy production may be down as much as 30-35% this week -- meaning, he probably will score around 8-10 fantasy points compared to his average week of about 14 points. If Gore can only snag you eight points this week, he is not likely your best option. He might be worth a look at flex in a PPR league as he will pick-up some short yardage in the passing game, but overall he should probably be considered for your bench. I am projecting less than 55 yards rushing, 1-2 receptions for short yardage and no score.
Greene might be coming off a huge game -- 32 carries for 160 plus yards and three scores-- but I think it is a fluke. This week Greene will face a New England defense that can shut down the run if prepared. I am banking on New England watching game tape and being prepared for Greene. He definitely has the New York running game locked up as we saw Powell and McKnight suffer injuries, but the likelihood of Green having another big day out like he did in Week 6 is not something I would count on. Week 6 was Greene's second double-digit fantasy week this season and if we have learned anything being a Shonn Greene fantasy owner, it is that he is inconsistent. Greene is one of those guys I hate to pass up on draft day because he has great potential, but he never truly lives up to the hype. Take Greene for what he is: a solid back that can have a huge day or a bust of a day. Unfortunately, his bust days come more often than his big days. This week I factor him in for 13-15 carries for around 60 yards and maybe a short yardage reception or two, but no socre.
Following his production in the first three weeks of the season, Andrew Hawkins gained a lot of fantasy attention. However, since Week 3 his production has stalled and he is scoring only 5-6 points on average. This past week, Hawkins also made the pick-up lists of several fantasy sites. He then proceeded to have a down week. This week Hawkins and his fellow wideouts face Pittsburgh's tough defense. Pittsburgh is only allowing an average of 194 passing yards to opposing teams and an average of two passing touchdowns. I suspect that we will see another down week from Hawkins in Week 7. Projections show that his fantasy numbers this week could be down as much as 32%. This means we will likely see about 6 points vs. Hawkins' average week of about 9 points -- considering his double-digit first three weeks. I like Hawkins and think he will see a few more solid weeks after the Week 8 bye, but schedule-wise he might also see some tough opponents. Look for 3-4 receptions for 30-40 yards this week without a score.