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New York Mets

The #8 World Ranked High Stakes Fantasy Baseball Player, Shawn Childs, breaks down every team to help you prep for your big draft!

New York Mets Team Projection

After going through the Mets batters yesterday, it's time to analyze their starting rotation and bullpen.

1. SP Matt Harvey

Matt Harvey fantasy baseball

There's no doubt Harvey was electric in 2013. His walk rate (1.6) made a huge step forward (3.5 in the minors and 3.9 in 59.3 innings in the majors in 2012) while his K rate (9.6) came only about the same at his minor league resume (9.8). Matt ate up lefties (.178 with a .240 SLG %) with winnable success against RH batters (.240). His ERA was under 3.00 in every month in 2013. His AFB (95.8) was electric (.224) with 3 other plus pitches (slider - .195, curveball - .196, and changeup - .200). Harvey has a career 2.39 ERA in the majors with 261 K's in 237.7 innings and a 3.48 ERA in the minors with 268 K's in 245.7 innings. His stats in the majors paint a stud ace, but his success in 2013 was due to huge growth in his command and an elite fastball. With a full 18 months to recover from his TJ surgery, Harvey should be all systems go this spring. In the early draft season, Matt is getting drafted as a top 15 starter. This means he has to pitch 200 innings to match the top pitchers in the game. His success in 2015 will fall on his ability to throw strikes with a return of his velocity. Great arm with impact upside, but his final results may only be 75 cents of the dollar due to his final innings. If the reports in spring training are positive, he's worth the gamble.

2. SP Jacob DeGrom

Jacob DeGrom fantasy baseball

My biggest pet peeve in fantasy baseball is a young player outperforming his minor league resume in his first season in the majors. Jacob has a career 3.62 ERA in the minors with 267 K's in 323.3 innings. His walk rate (2.4) fell in line with his minor league career. For some reason, his K rate (9.2) was much higher than any season in the minors (7.4). DeGrom is an older prospect as he missed the 2011 season with TJ surgery. His growth is most likely tied to the development of his changeup, which gave him the most value against lefties (.212). He also throws a slider and curveball. Jacob had almost equal success against RH (.231) and LH (.224) batters. His skill set made a huge step forward after the All Star break (8-2 with a 2.16 ERA and 99 K's in 85.7 innings). The best part was his growth in his walk rate (2.0). Short resume of elite success, but he skill set did have growth. I love to say his success is repeatable, but I need to see more. I expect 200 innings with a minimum of 175 K's. His ERA should draft back over 3.00 with upside in whip due his solid command.

3. SP Zack Wheeler

Zack Wheeler fantasy baseball

Wheeler handled himself well in his first season in the majors. He had an excellent K rate (9.1) while batters only hit .240 against him (Righties - .223 and Lefties - .259). His struggles with walks is mainly to LH batters (50 of 79 walks in 386 plate appearances). His first pitch strike rate (54.3 %) is in a weak area and it restricts his development in command. After a rough May and June (4.36 ERA), Zack started to figure it out over his last 15 starts of the year (8-3 with a 2.80 ERA with 92 K's in 90 innings). Even with some growth, his walk rate (3.7) only improved slightly from his first half (4.0). His AFB (95.0) is elite with a solid curveball and slider followed by an improving changeup. His HR/FB rate (10.1 %) is a bit high, but Wheeler does a good job keeping the ball on the ground (54.0 % GB rate). Excellent developing arm with much more upside when he unlocks the keys to repeating his delivery. Possible sub 3.00 ERA with 200 K's if he can shave 15 walks. For now, Zack still has high whip risk.

4. SP Jonathon Niese

Jonathon Niese fantasy baseball

I was scared to death of Niese after he suffered an elbow injury in mid March, which led to him starting the year on the DL. In 2013, he had a partially torn rotator cuff that didn't require surgery. Jon ended up only missing 1 start in April. Over his first 16 starts, Niese had an impressive 2.88 ERA with a solid walk rate (2.5). He took a line drive to his back on July 4th, which led to a 2 week DL stint with inflammation in his left AC joint. Jonathon struggled in his next 4 starts (16 runs and 39 base runners in 25 innings). He had the best walk rate (2.2) of his career while his K rate (6.6) has been short in back to back years. Niese didn't dominate righties (.273 with 14 of his 17 HR's allowed) or lefties (.254). His AFB (88.5) was 1.7 mph below his 2013 season. Jon throws a cutter as his #2 pitch followed by a solid curveball and rising changeup. He tends to be a GB pitcher (47.7 % - 49.1 % in his career). Soft tosser with improving command and secondary pitches. His elbow/shoulder issues over the last 2 years have sucked some life out of his fastball. Steady back end arm with some injury risk.

5. SP Bartolo Colon

Bartolo Colon fantasy baseball

Colon had a huge step back from his 2013 season, but his walk rate (1.3) reached an even higher level with growth in his K rate (6.7). Bartolo struggled against RH batters (.287) plus lefties had success (.260). His ERA was weak in April (4.50), May (4.96), August (4.65), and September (4.55). On the year, he allowed 2 runs or less in 16 of 31 starts. His downside was due to 5 disaster starts where he allowed 34 of his 92 earned runs (37 %). HIs AFB (88.7) was a career low and it was 1.2 mph lower than 2013. Amazingly, Colon threw his fastball 82.6 % of the time. His #2 pitch is slider followed by a low level changeup. Bartolo is a wood tick just waiting to explode. His one trick routine has more downside risk than reward, but Colon seems to have 9 lives. If you are looking for backend wins, his arm will have value at times if you can avoid the blowups.

6. SP Dillon Gee

Dillon Gee fantasy baseball

Gee missed 2 months of the season with a strained right lat. Prior to the injury, Dillon had a 2.73 ERA. After a rough patch in July (15 runs and 5 HR's in 16.7 innings), Gee never found his upside he showcased over the first 9 starts. In his 22 starts, he only allowed more than 4 runs twice all season. Dillon only had a slight edge against RH (.246) and LH (.254) batters. His K rate (6.2) is trending downward with a rising walk rate (2.8). Gee has had a high HR/FB rate (11.5 %). Serviceable major league arm who was trending upward prior to his back issue last year. He has a career 40-34 record with a 3.91 ERA with 464 K's in 639.7 innings. Possible 3.75 ERA with 150 K's and some slight whip risk, but he's the 6th starter headed into 2015.

7. SP Rafael Montero

Rafael Montero fantasy baseball

Montero had mixed results in his first season in the majors. His walk rate (4.5) was a huge negative along with his HR's allowed (1.6 per 9). Rafael had success against righties (.215) while LH batters drilled him pretty good (.293 with a .554 SLG %). He pitched poorly in 3 of his first 5 starts, which led to a 6.12 ERA. Over his last 5 games in the majors (3 starts), Rafael proved his arm had value in the majors (3 runs and 26 base runners in 24.3 innings with 21 K's - 1.11 ERA). At AAA, he went 6-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 80 K's in 80 innings. Montero has a solid minor league resume (34-20 with a 2.69 ERA and 413 K's in 434.3 innings). His walk rate (2.1) was in a very good area in the minors with a solid K rate (8.6). His AFB (92.2) was just below major league average with the Mets. He threw a slider as his #2 pitch followed by changeup. Excellent resume with some major league experience. Rafael is ready to be added to the Mets starting rotation, but he may need an injury to create an opportunity. Very good buy and hold with a sub 3.50 ERA in store for 2015.

8. SP Noah Syndergaard

Noah Syndergaard fantasy baseball

Real tough season for Syndergaard in 2014. He was crushed at AAA (4.60 ERA and 1.481 whip), which lowered his minor league resume (31-19 with a 3.25 ERA and 474 K's in 426.7 innings). His walk rate (2.9) was a slight step back from his career resume (2.6) while his K rate (9.8) remained in a strong area. After 16 starts at AAA, Noah had a 5.72 ERA. Over his last 9 starts, he pitched like the Mets expected him to in 2014 (2.61 ERA with 58 K's in 48.3 innings). Las Vegas (4.71 ERA) is a real tough place to pitch, but he wasn't much better in the road (4.48 ERA). Solid upside arm with excellent command and a plus K rate. We saw the growth of DeGrom and Harvey at the majors so Syndergaard could come quickly. His path to pitch in the majors isn't clear and Montero appears to be the first option. A must follow in 2015.

9. CL Jenrry Mejia

Jenrry Mejia fantasy baseball

Mejia had success in 3 of his 4 first starts in 2014 (3-0 with a 1.99 ERA). He was then drilled in back to back starts (14 runs and 20 base runners in 10 innings), which led to his finding his way back to the bullpen. With a week, he took over the closing job. Jenrry converted 28 of 31 chances with a 2.72 ERA as a reliever with 60 K's in 56.3 innings. His walk rate (3.9) was slightly better in the bullpen (3.4). On the year, he struggled with righties (.289 with 7 of 9 HR's allowed). His AFB (92.5) was a slightly stronger than 2013. His slider remained his #2 pitch followed by a curveball and changeup. His HR/FB rate (11.1 %) has improved in back to back years, but it does invite risk in the 9th inning. His GB rate (50.0 %) is in a very good area, but it has declined sharply in the last 2 years. Front runner for the closing job, but his walk rate could get him in trouble. His 2.87 ERA in the minor does give him upside. Over the last 6 weeks or so, he pitched through a sport hernia that required surgery in early October

10. RB Bobby Parnell

Bobby Parnell fantasy baseball

Parnell's 2014 season last all of one game. He blew out his right elbow on April 1st after showing declined velocity in late March. The previous season Parnell handled himself well as the Mets closer over the first 4 months of the season. He threw the most first pitch strikes of his career (65 %), which led an improved walk rate (2.2). His K rate (7.9) has declined in the last 2 seasons. Bobby had the exact same success against RH (.211) and (LH (.211) batters. His AFB (95.0) has weaker than his last 3 years. His #2 pitch continues to be a curveball. As a reliever, he could have a quicker window to return. The Mets expected him to start the year on the DL. He has been hurt in back to back seasons. His arm may offer more upside the Mejia's in the 9th when he rounds into form. Possible handcuff.

11. RP Jeurys Familia

Jeurys Familia fantasy baseball

Familia failed as a starter at AAA in 2012 (4.73 ERA with a poor walk rate {4.8}), which led to him being converted to a reliever. He missed most of 2013 with biceps tendinitis. He surgery on his right elbow to remove bone spurs in June 4, 2013. In mid March last year, Jeurys was clocked at 100 mph. He pitched great in his first season the majors (2.21 ERA), but his walk rate (3.7) is a negative. He dominated righties (.134) while showing risk against LH batters (.293 with only 19 K's in 153 plate appearances). His AFB (96.4) is closer worthy with his only other real pitch being a slider. Upside arm, but he needs to develop a pitch to help him get lefties out.

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